In a clearly US-driven, desperate attempt to create some cover for a badly battered President Bahamas, Turkey uninspiredly decided to involve itself in the US-RU conflict over Syria. Transparently, the State Department judges that downing an old Russian plane might offer some opportunity to re-brand a multi-year string of painful humiliations the US president suffered on the global stage into a local conflict between local powers. As outright insane as this approach may be, it is perfectly consistent with the US tradition of denial and misrepresentation of failure, a tradition that ensured a century of constant, predictable and egregious failure while effectually preventing any possibility of learning, with the ultimately unsurprising result of ruining that country.

The price the puppets pay for participating in the insanity has always been disproportionate. In the case of Turkey that price is almost certainly going to be territorial loss. In the best case scenario, the Kurdish minority declares independence and cuts a slice of ~10% off Turkey's current territory before the decade's out. In the worst case scenario, Turkey's delicate internal balance gets smashed, and the country joins Iraq on the lengthy and growing list of states destroyed by their great friend from across the ocean.

This latter scenario could actually be more likely than the former. Turkey is exceptionally a secular island lost in an advancing Muslim tide. The introduction of that secularity as well as its maintenance strictly depend on the army remaining strong. While it is true that the Turkish army always played a major role in Turkish politics and society generally, to the point of ensuring the failure of the Ottoman empire through its fear of modernization, it is entirely unclear that a soundly beaten military will be able to maintain the mindshare it requires to continue the century of repression of religious ambitions in that country.

A very similar conflict between Argentina and the UK resulted not merely in a painful, humiliating defeat for the military junta then in power in Buenos Aires, but in a complete reversal of policy up to that point and a full return of the socialists to power. Similarly Egypt, a rather secular Muslim state under Mubarak, swiftly became a Muslim Brotherhood stronghold. It is therefore perfectly conceivable, and perhaps even likely, that a Turkish military soundly humiliated in the field by a much larger, better equipped, trained and organised Russian military will trigger far reaching shifts in Turkish society – perhaps reaching far enough to crumble the entire construction of "Turkey" as a state.

In any case : the momentary benefit of temporarily soothing the ego of a bumbling imbecile / Nobel laureate will not overshadow the very real costs in quality of life (as well as actual life) coming Turkey's way. And besides : give President Bahamas a few weeks, he's going to find another pole to beat himself bloody against. At which point… maybe it's time for Canada to go behind the shed ? Germany ? Japan ?

Good luck to all these poor, misfortunate "allies". They'll definitely need it.